The story hasn't made the Times yet, but I notice First group's share price rose by about 3% yesterday. There's possibly a bit of skullduggery going on.
If they do sell, who would be the possible buyers ? Stagecoach could be interested in Bolton since it conveniently adjoins Wigan, but the Competition Regulator wouldn't be very keen on them getting their hands on Queen's Road, and Oldham might not appeal. Arriva probably won't consider any expansion in the current Brexit situation.
Do Transdev have the financial clout to come into the mix I wonder ?
(05/02/2019 10:40)EDB325 Wrote: [ -> ]The story hasn't made the Times yet, but I notice First group's share price rose by about 3% yesterday. There's possibly a bit of skullduggery going on.
If they do sell, who would be the possible buyers ? Stagecoach could be interested in Bolton since it conveniently adjoins Wigan, but the Competition Regulator wouldn't be very keen on them getting their hands on Queen's Road, and Oldham might not appeal. Arriva probably won't consider any expansion in the current Brexit situation.
Do Transdev have the financial clout to come into the mix I wonder ?
I would think Stagecoach would almost certainly go for oldham. I just wonder if legally as a separate entity stagecoach Merseyside could bid for Bolton??
(05/02/2019 19:51)Mayneway Wrote: [ -> ]I would think Stagecoach would almost certainly go for oldham. I just wonder if legally as a separate entity stagecoach Merseyside could bid for Bolton??
I'd think Stagecoach would have more issues surrounding competition going for Oldham because of all the Tameside routes. Bolton only really has the 38 in competition, and the 34/Vantage to an extent. Bolton would be fairly attractive I'd have thought because of Vantage, and the opportunity to make changes to the 36/37/38 to fill the buses up a bit more!
This all did the rounds last year. It is no surprise though if they are considering selling it.
First of all they don't like the idea of a franchised network, they sold operations in London for that reason.
Second reason is over the years they have made bad management decisions, like closing so many depots that the dead mileage is astronomical and also de-registering services, so people don't use the feeder services.
Also Metrolink is trimming away at mileage in the North between Oldham and Manchester, Manchester and Rochdale and Rochdale and Oldham.
Fares are also constantly being increased so they don't compete with Metrolink effectively.
Vantage is an issue, in that the bid price is said to be wrong so they cant make a profit off it despite buses being generally full.
Traffic is an issue lets not forget an astronomical figure of extra cars went on the roads of Greater Manchester in the last two years, no doubt some of it because of the collapse in reliability of the buses.
Then we take a look at the 36 and 37 were First are clearly losing ground to Stagecoach on the 38, when I go into Manchester I regularly see 36's and 37's carrying next to nobody and 38's and 50's very busy though Salford, obviously a bad mistake to carry on both the 36 and 37 rather than amalgamating them into a single route or altering one of them to serve places poorly served like Roe Green and parts of Worsley.
Another issue has been giving up school work as that was a guaranteed income, much of this passing to Tyrers who has a smarter fleet than First Manchester.
In terms to buyers I would think its more or less certain that Stagecoach want Bolton, although Bolton would be the most attractive depot as the competition with Metrolink isn't there, and if in the mid term the Vantage contract could be re-secured at a better rate that could be highly profitable.
If Stagecoach was to get it it eliminates some competition for tenders out to the West should franchising take place.
Other likely buyers could be Comfort-Delgro and Transit Systems both of which have experience in the franchised market in London, although both of those would want to buy more than one depot in order to cut out competition.
There is no way Stagecoach would be able to buy any of these Depots as they already operate many Buses in Greater Manchester, It would need to be another Operator.
(05/02/2019 23:06)T42 PVM Wrote: [ -> ]There is no way Stagecoach would be able to buy any of these Depots as they already operate many Buses in Greater Manchester, It would need to be another Operator.
I am sceptical as to whether they could but look at the situation in Tayside were they managed to get Strathtay and gain more or less every major route in Perth and Kinross.
I has been suggested in the past that the opps in Wigan would pass to Merseyside control, they would also take Bolton so in effect there would be two separate companies for the time being which may be more acceptable to the MMC.
No doub't though they would have to clear MMC hurdles, the other option would be to sell Wigan on to another operator as part of an MMC agreement should there be issues.
I don’t think Stagecoach would get close to a takeover of Oldham depot, too many Oldham routes cut through North Manchester and as mentioned Tameside as it is; Stagecoach having those covered with Ashton and Middleton.
Stagecoach have also been sluggish with their own services lately especially when you consider the lack of 2018 investment, daft fare increases and more services being cut.
First have a load of 05-06 B7RLE’s to be replaced soon and Stagecoach have a high number of 08 plate Enviro400’s which will need replacement in a few years. That’s a huge expense for a company who don’t want franchising.
If First is to break up the ‘GM North’ division I think each depot will go to a different company, Arriva at a push may fancy Queens Road if they want to expand further into Manchester than just the South/Trafford.
I can possibly see another management buyout occuring if they can get some angel investors or venture capitalists involved.
I Could see Oldham routes being sold without the Depot as that land is wanted and also the Buses could be moved to make other depots more sellable so Stagecoach could take it by changing routes a bit and moving Middleton depot to say Hollingwood. Manchester could go to someone who wants to enter Manchester with Bolton going to one of the other companies in that area with them moving there fleet into that depot. if they don't sell they will wind up routes and give routes away like they done before in other areas.
There is no way that Stagecoach could take Oldham or any part of it as the Tameside and Middleton routes stray onto its operating area.
There was a said deal twelve months to two years ago when Stagecoach were having Bolton and another operator, RATP if I recall wanted the other two.
Since RATP has lost Metrolink it would be interesting to see if this is still the case.
First may sell them as separate depots but its not beyond the realms of possibility that one operator may buy two or even all three depots as they are going to be sold cheaply. Individual depot sales might also interest Rotala who could perhaps raise enough capital to buy one depot and expand there operations, perhaps Bolton then Atherton could be closed and everything moved there, this could be the reason why a said possible buy out by Rotala of Arriva depots by Rotala, particularly Bolton, in Greater Manchester has gone cold.
Though to my mind I suspect because of the prospect of franchising a London based operator, either Comfort Delgro or Transit Systems might try to get some or all of the depots, not lets forget that, that's who bought most of Firsts London Operations when they pulled out there, though it would be a big learning curb for who ever was left in charge to change them to making a profit as I guess the current management team would remain with FirstGroup or get the push.