Diamond Bus North West

[Winston]

RE: Diamond Bus North West

(11/07/2019 22:16)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Would Souter Investments be able to though when he holds Stagecoach shares? Would that simply not be blocked and/or investigated by the MMC? Office of Fair Trading? and either him being forced to release his Stagecoach shares or place himself in a none executive position on Stagecoach's board with shares being locked, until an age when he is no longer part of either company operationally. E.g. a Souter Size pension fund. I've also heard that Souter wants the routes but not the business to avoid any MMC investigation, that situation would be very unlikely, especially as Venture Capitalists would likely become involved, and so far of the five bids for Arriva none have been made by any Brian Souter company, although he still has time to mount a bid for the moment! unless of course he is more interested now in what is a FirstGroup based on the fact that is more likely to be broken now and he can hedge his bets on Arriva being bought by one of the Venture Capitalists and broken up later on. Of course nothing is to say that Stagecoach might break off companies in the future should it get into financial difficulty at a latter stage, or doesn't like what some Andy Burnham type character is doing i elsewhere, or Andy Burnham him himself is doing in Manchester, e.g. after a final legal push in Manchester and the toys are thrown out of the basket if it loses money elsewhere in one of its fleets, e.g. another East Lancashire.

I am lead to believe National Express is not really interested in much beyond the West Midlands, otherwise why has it not yet raised its hand in the 25 years or so its held West Midlands except in Dundee? Perhaps National Express is a vehicle to continue and inject capital into what was Travel West Midlands and also the MBO at Tayside. I've also wondered over the years why National Express didn't join up as a merger with GoAhead, as nothing duplicates between them, despite GoAhead getting its toes burn't in Birmingham previously, National Express is a different picture to Birmingham Coach Company and Peoples Express.

Stagecoach was the first to be tied to a potential Arriva deal when it first went up for sale.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark...-sale.html

It's wouldn't be Stagecoach direct if done via Souter Holdings potentially acting as broker to break-up & sell some parts, whilst retaining other parts. Souter only holds 15.2% of Stagecoach Plc and doesn't have a controlling stake. There is also the possibility the Stagecoach could be interested in Arriva European Ops, as present they are now solely reliant on the UK for their business having being excluded and now refusing to bid for anymore UK franchises.

If you look at the major shareholding in Stagecoach PLC & First Group, Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. own 18.2% & 8.83% respectively.

I think you're forgetting that NX have been buying commuter / corporate coach companies in the UK the past couple of years i.e. Kings Ferry / Clarkes of London / Stewarts & Woods Coaches. Also during the timeframe your refer to, NX owned & grew Travel London incorporating Connex London & TGM London which was sold to Abellio in 2009 under CEO Richard Bowker. Additionally, NX were involved in the early stages of bidding for First Manchester depots, but dropped out as they were seen to be too expensive, they also bid for Manchester Metrolink contract. Whilst NX have largely been expanding overseas mainly US & Spain, you need to remember that their CEO Dean Finch is ex First Group and knows the business well, opportunities to buy large profitable urban bus businesses in the UK such as Bristol, Glasgow, West Yorkshire etc don't come around very often. These share similar operating characteristics to national Express West Midlands i.e. high frequency, urban, some are former PTE areas. NX are interested in anything at the right price, I think they may show a hand and surprise. Go-Ahead Group Group would make a good merger partner for NX, as they have some good quality UK Bus ops. But as previously said, NX are in the unique position that they could buy large parts / all of First Group or Arriva UK with little or no overlap of opoco's / services.