First Manchester

[Gillmoss 0324]

RE: First Manchester
Interesting times ahead in Greater Manchester with this purchase from Go Ahead. Suppose it was a matter of time before they got a significant North West operator… although if circumstances had’ve been different they may have been a sizeable operator in Liverpool/Merseyside with Gillmoss etc.

The plus point for Go Ahead is if TfGM/the combined authority go down the franchising route they’ve got extensive experience of working with that model with Go Ahead London and more recent moves into Singapore and Ireland. Having said that from experience some Go Ahead London operations aren't perfect although there's many factors outside their control which probably contribute to that!

I’m generally not so sure pure franchising will be adopted outside London. I think it will be more the quality contract route with perhaps a lot more involvement from the local authorities/PTE’s etc. that will be adopted. If so Stagecoach will probably stick around and they’ve generally been known to work peacefully with Go Ahead. They’re the interesting one to watch as if franchising does happen will Stagecoach remain and if it doesn’t would they consider becoming the main operator in the region with the others offering it competition to satisfy the Competition Commission if it made a move for either or both Bolton/Oldham.

Yes First might consider keeping hold of Oldham – at least in the short term and integrate it into the West Yorkshire operations. However I’m not sure whether West Yorkshire or their operations generally are financially any better than Greater Manchester at the moment and don’t really see the value of doing that opposed to a clean break sale. Also regarding vehicles they’ll probably sell Queens Road and the other depots vehicles to the new operator rather than transfer the newer stock to other FirstGroup divisions. This happened in London when ex-First vehicles were retained by Go Ahead, Metroline and Tower Transit.

Go Ahead might consider adding Bolton/Oldham too along with other North West operators like Warrington and Halton. Bolton/Oldham may also interest to Rotala and perhaps Transdev Blazefield. However both could get Competition Commission issues with Rotala’s Diamond Bus operations – particularly Bolton and Blazefield’s Lancashire United and Rosso operations are both in close proximity to both Oldham and Bolton. Blazefield also haven’t been massively keen on operating within the GMPTE/TfGM region previously and have sort of been there before in Bolton before selling the ex-Stagecoach Lancashire United’s operations in/around the town to Blue Bus who in turn sold out to Arriva a few years later.

Arriva will be an interesting one to watch. Bolton operations have shrunk over the last few years so the rumours of an exit may now happen especially if new players either enter or consolidate operations in/around Bolton. As said before St Helens depot could perhaps take on the Sapphire Wigan – Bolton service if Arriva exit Bolton. The South Manchester/Trafford operations seem more stable if perhaps not really having money spinner routes compared to Stagecoach etc. and Arriva generally feel like a bit part players in Greater Manchester and with operations somewhat isolated from the core Merseyside/North West division so perhaps someone like Diamond/Rotala who run in these area’s could pick these up/strengthen their presence.

Could smaller operators days in Greater Manchester be numbered? Maybe Bullocks and Stotts etc. could continue but equally could cut their losses and concentrate on coaching if these become less lucrative and/or the big boys come calling. MCT and Selwyns (RATP) are also operators to watch here as if franchising does happen they may try and capitalise on it’s opportunities. They’re both parts of parents who like Go Ahead have experience of this/the London model. Likewise they may sell out and/or pull out of the region if things don’t work out for them in the near future.

Whatever happens I hope that the future delivers a better bus network in Greater Manchester, Merseyside and elsewhere than what has or is being delivered. First (and others) are only really doing what their shareholders and business model demands of them to operate a business which generates significant profit and that is why once reasonably decent well used services are dwindling and going to the wall at the moment. The many rights/wrongs of First's time in Greater Manchester have been mentioned at length here and not something I want to get into but hopefully Go Ahead is the shot in the arm the region needs to improve this situation and attract more people back to buses/public transport.