First Group Speculation

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Group Speculation
I can't see anyone buying Wigan as the network there would need to be totally recast and the victor would probably have to also buy out SLT to be able to get any sort of stability on Wigan locals, what is probably more likely is that Wigan will close at Christmas, the locals would be abandoned along with perhaps the 598 and everythinge lse moved into Bolton or Manchester depots the 600 being interworked with the 582.

However I've also heard that its the site at Bryn that has magniffied the losses and that First have another sceme in mind to keep a smaller depot at Ince which would be a reopenning of the School Bus unit and Bryn would then close, Ince would be an outstation of Bolton used mainly for schools plus 600's and 32's plus a small amount of local work that might be able to be retained but using drivers on lower wages and smaller vehicles as an SOU eg Optare Solo's cascaded from elsewhere.

[mbonwick]

RE: First Manchester Potential sale of Wigan Depot

(28/09/2012 23:47)Damien Wrote:  I am choosing my words very carefully in posting this thread, Just as an extention to the Rock Ferry Chester Thread.

Wigan is subject of a lot of rumors and gossip at the moment, suggesting that Stagecoach are looking at taking the depot, and the deal will be done within three months. Personally seems highly doubtful.

Although 3 months seems like a short time, and it is, its conveniently the length of the 'standstill' period that would be required once a deal is reached.

Remember also that there appear to have been informal background discussions going on for several months...

[First Class]

RE: First Group Speculation
Something going on with First Group down in Devon with 22 cancellations listed on VOSA (from 18 November)...

[wirralbus]

RE: First Group Speculation

(29/09/2012 22:41)First Class Wrote:  Something going on with First Group down in Devon with 22 cancellations listed on VOSA (from 18 November)...

Arent these the cancellations to get out of the area with Stagecoach replacing the routes or is this something different .

[First Class]

RE: First Group Speculation
Despite bringing in £1.2million in revenue, this resulted in a £0.6m loss for First Greyhound UK, with some coaches reported to be carrying single figure loads. It is expected to be axed.

The Group Finance Director for First Group has also confirmed there is a £100m disposals project (for outside of London) relating to the First UK Bus division at a recent pre-close update for stakeholders.

£100million worth of UK Bus Operations outside of London must be a considerable number of operations, probably somewhere between 5 and 8.

The conference also highlighted the importance of the West Coast franchise being critical to the future of the company and the increased focus on the rail portfolio.

[wirralbus]

RE: First Group Speculation
So First group could be in serious doubt if the First West Coast does not meet targets .

[First Class]

RE: First Group Speculation

(02/10/2012 22:11)wirralbus Wrote:  So First group could be in serious doubt if the First West Coast does not meet targets .

The general attitude was that if they don't get Intercity West Coast AND fail to retain the Great Western franchise, then they will be pretty much wiped out.

Bus division - heavy losses in areas, £100m disposals project. Little investment available, may lose market share to other operators.

Greyhound - heavy losses, likely to be axed.

Rail - TPE due up in 2015, Scotrail due up in 2014, Great Western 2013, Capital Connect also 2013. Hull Trains growth rate reported to be poor, but steady.

There is a real possibility of their rail division taking a good battering. There could be pressure on the DfT internally to prevent or restrict First from winning future franchises, owing to the perceived financial risk of their WestCoast bid. Come 2015, they may only have one franchise, (WCML). With Arriva/DB getting stronger from the merger, Abellio, SNCF, RENFE and MTR Japan starting to become more active in the bidding world, First would have to tender a very competitive bid, which could impact them financially.

I can see someone buying First Group out and restructuring, probably Keolis.

[wirralbus]

RE: First Group Speculation
Thinks first Group may have a bit of a headache now they do not have the west coast to fall back on now .

[tallguy9]

RE: First Group Speculation

(02/10/2012 23:20)wirralbus Wrote:  Thinks first Group may have a bit of a headache now they do not have the west coast to fall back on now .

Ultimately losing the over optimistic West Coast bid could be the thing that saves this troubled business. It makes more sense to get their core business in order first.

[First Class]

RE: First Group Speculation
I can only see disaster in the future of First Group.

If they don't get WestCoast, DfT may be sympathetic and re-award them GreatWestern, if franchises are still around!