2024 Cascade

[Raawwwrrr!]

RE: 2024 Cascade

(04/01/2024 02:11)lcm453 Wrote:  Arriva has got so many buses that are 14 years old that will have to be replaced with newer vehicles well before franchising comes into effect.

The 15 year and 364 days rule will come into effect just as and after franchising starts in their first area, and if the LCR follow the TFGM example, there is no automatic right for Arriva to operate the majority of LCR services, so they might not actually need any buses theoretically if the business shrinks in size.

The remaining 58’ plate (29xx) Pulsars and (44xx) Enviros have until Jan 2025
The first and largely departed 09’ Pulsar 2’s (2935-2940) until Mar/Apr 2025
The next batch (2941-2953) May/June 25
The next batch (2954-2983) and what remains of the 09’ Enviros (4423-4434) July/Aug 25.

Bear in mind that during this time I believe Wythenshawe depot will close and will likely see the 12 plate and 59 plate transfer over. I’d expect to see a small vehicle order, and a large number of cast-off’s

[North West Bus Spotter]

RE: 2024 Cascade

(04/01/2024 08:25)Raawwwrrr! Wrote:  The 15 year and 364 days rule will come into effect just as and after franchising starts in their first area, and if the LCR follow the TFGM example, there is no automatic right for Arriva to operate the majority of LCR services, so they might not actually need any buses theoretically if the business shrinks in size.

The remaining 58’ plate (29xx) Pulsars and (44xx) Enviros have until Jan 2025
The first and largely departed 09’ Pulsar 2’s (2935-2940) until Mar/Apr 2025
The next batch (2941-2953) May/June 25
The next batch (2954-2983) and what remains of the 09’ Enviros (4423-4434) July/Aug 25.

Bear in mind that during this time I believe Wythenshawe depot will close and will likely see the 12 plate and 59 plate transfer over. I’d expect to see a small vehicle order, and a large number of cast-off’s

Well, considering we've already lost some of the 26** examples over at St Helens to Yorkshire for YJ62s and the loss of the 09 44**s to Leicester, there won't be need for new vehicles to replace them as we already have 62s and 64s coming in respectively

As for the mentioned possible Wythenshawe closure, I can see that possibly happening early-mid time this year with the Bee Network taking the depot, the 59s would probably move to depots like Runcorn and Birkenhead with the 12s being spread across the Merseyside network with a few possibly ending up in Runcorn with sisters 3136, 37, 38 and 40 but I guess time will tell if this actually happens

[CUL 73V]

RE: 2024 Cascade
There is no "maybe" about Arriva vacating Wythenshawe when the third tranche goes live next January, its focus is on LCR franchising and it's unlikely to have a change of heart in Manchester. When this happens, around thirty 59, 61, 12 Pulsars and the Mellors will become surplus and available for reallocation, where needed. Until then, the status quo will be retained.

[Raawwwrrr!]

RE: 2024 Cascade

(04/01/2024 13:37)CUL 73V Wrote:  There is no "maybe" about Arriva vacating Wythenshawe when the third tranche goes live next January, its focus is on LCR franchising and it's unlikely to have a change of heart in Manchester. When this happens, around thirty 59, 61, 12 Pulsars and the Mellors will become surplus and available for reallocation, where needed. Until then, the status quo will be retained.

And if the above 30-ish Pulsars do come to Merseyside and the LCR, and replace like for like, that means that they’ll be no need for ANY (new or second-hand) fleet replacement until around May 2025.

[chris-s]

RE: 2024 Cascade
Let's not forget about the 10 hyrdo deckers at Jackson St that have still not seen service, and I honestly don't think they will with the spiraling cost of Hydrogen

[North West Bus Spotter]

RE: 2024 Cascade

(04/01/2024 14:57)chris-s Wrote:  Let's not forget about the 10 hyrdo deckers at Jackson St that have still not seen service, and I honestly don't think they will with the spiraling cost of Hydrogen

That could be the case leading Arriva to getting brand new Enviro 400MMCs as seen with Arriva Leicester and Stagecoach M&SL, this could be the case with Gillmoss getting a handful of new 400MMCs too but again, time will tell

[Raawwwrrr!]

RE: 2024 Cascade

(04/01/2024 15:22)North West Bus Spotter Wrote:  That could be the case leading Arriva to getting brand new Enviro 400MMCs as seen with Arriva Leicester and Stagecoach M&SL, this could be the case with Gillmoss getting a handful of new 400MMCs too but again, time will tell

Arriva have moved away from ADL products

The Streetdeck is the standard double decker
The Evora is the standard single decker

Jackson street wouldn’t require new buses if theoretically the Hydrogen fleet no longer see service as they haven’t replaced anything in the current fleet.

[Bevan Price]

RE: 2024 Cascade
There is no guarantee that Arriva - or Stagecoach - will get all, much - or any contracts for LCR. If another operator, maybe one who has lost work in GM or elsewhere offers a better deal, they could get LCR contracts.

[Neoplan N4009]

RE: 2024 Cascade

(04/01/2024 15:51)Raawwwrrr! Wrote:  Arriva have moved away from ADL products

The Streetdeck is the standard double decker
The Evora is the standard single decker

Jackson street wouldn’t require new buses if theoretically the Hydrogen fleet no longer see service as they haven’t replaced anything in the current fleet.

Think it’s more a case of which bus builder offers the best lead delivery time and build slot availability, Leicester have a plethora of new E400MMC’s, some E200MMC’s as well as the odd depots within the North East gaining such. Whereas in the case of Yorkshire and Merseyside’s most recent decker deliveries? They’ve been Streetdecks.

[Metroline1511]

RE: 2024 Cascade
In London Arriva will be upgrading routes 243, 279 & W3, and potentially the retained Croydon routes this year too.

So, some newer Enviro 400s and Wrightbus Gemini could come to Merseyside to replace older buses.