First Manchester

[Bevan Price]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 14:43)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Lets not forget though that Arriva is unofficially for sale in pieces, like FirstGroup is, so I am sure if Rotala offered for them they would go. There is quite a bit of dead mileage operating the 360 for example and it only touches into Merseyside at Newton-le-Willows. Rotala could pick this up at Golborne or Wigan quite easily from Atherton without the need for large distances of dead mileage.

I don't think that there is lot of dead mileage on the 360 - it interworks with the 329 at Warrington. The only dead mileage is at the start & end of the day. And St. Helens is probably closer to Warrington than is Atherton.

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Manchester
Have heard now that Go Ahead will take over Manchester on the second week in May not as quick as originally was the case. Also heard now that Rotala have an £80m war chest so maybe in that case Bolton might go to them.

Simply what I can't get with Arriva is why if they don't want franchising they would keep cross boundary routes into places like Wigan or South Manchester yet sell other routes that go there from Bolton or Altrincham. Seems to me something of a strange policy as you either deal with it or you don't half measures, we want some franchising but not other bits simply doesn't make sense as you still have to work with the body you say you can't work with. So something has to give, those routes could go out to tender in any case by TfGM or at least the parts within Greater Manchester.

Also rule out a Transdev takeover for Bolton that's now a none starter from what I understand, the only interested party we know about is Rotala, not sure if anyone else externally is in the running, also heard HCT owners of MCT are not interested in Oldham depot.

[Winston]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 08:57)gilesbus1 Wrote:  All of which would need to be paid back as its a loan, it may give them assets to purchase but lets look at FirstGroup and why its in the state its in. A buy like Bolton that is potentially making losses would be a mistake, small fleets one step at a time is the right move and the one this operator has taken up to now, so far its largest acquisition having been GoAheads operations in the West Midlands and then Preston Bus, if Bolton becomes Diamond North West then you might spend £12-20m on the operation then several £million on recasting the network and renewing the fleet leaving very little money for further expansion.

They have a war chest and are looking at Arriva operations in Greater Manchester but obviously the sale of First Manchester has delayed this as it may alter the game of how much the company is worth, say if the new buyer decided to compete head on with Arriva and what they might need to do with Diamond if the new operator competes head on with them also or instead off, so its a waiting game. I also understand that it the past they have expressed interest in Jim Stones as well, and Vision Bus could be another purchase that might give growth with its routes in the Bolton area.

Also as part of a deal with Arriva some cross boundary services operated by St Helens might also be bought as routes like the 360 might better be operated from Atherton as might the longer 34's St Helens - Leigh and maybe services between Wigan and Skelmersdale.

Most businesses expand by using debt to make acquisitions, only the select few use existing cash reserves to mark purchases. The £50 million warchest is purely for buying any businesses, that was the whole point of the article 'to let the other big groups know that they the means to / are keen to make acquisitions should they be looking for an exit. Same as Dean Finch's comments that NX Group may be interested in buying certain parts of First UK Bus.

There is no deal to buy Arriva Manchester, that was all pre 28th July 2017 announcement to the stock market, As it will have been two years this July, I think that's unlikely to ever get off the starting blocks now. As for buying Jim Stones & Vision Bus, why? What are you buying? a large proportion of their work is TfGM tendered routes, why not just bid cheap on next tender round, win a large chunk of their work & do a deal to buy what's left. There's a lot more competitors for tendered work in GM, than here in the WM, get rid of one & another comes along. Aren't there about 18 different operators in the Onebus scheme?

As regards buses, Rotala have bought very little second-hand stuff in the past 12 months, the last being 2 x 66 plate Solo SR's (ex GHA), 2 x 14 Plate Scania Omnilinks (ex Express Motors) & 2 x DF Streetlites (ex Yourbus). Since then it's been brand new buses as follows:

10 x DF/WF Streetlites for Hallmark Heathrow July 2018
5 x Mellor Strata's for Preston Bus July 2018
10 x Mellor Strata's for Diamond WM Oct 2018
17 x DF Streetlites (10.8m) for Diamond WM Jan/Feb 2019
10 x DF Streetlites (9.6m) 4 for Diamond NW & 6 x Diamond WM Jan/Feb 2019
5 x Mellor Strata's to Diamond WM Feb 2019

Still due are as follows:

10 x Mellor Strata's - 5 in April (5 to Diamond WM), 5 in June (un-allocated)
5 x DF Streetlites for Hotel Hoppa

A lot of the new fleet & indeed purchases which will soon be coming to the end of their contracts are now taken out on 7 year operating leases. Rotala will invest in new stock if there's a business case / benefit to Rotala Group, they will not buy new buses for a subsidiary / route if it's unlikely to grow passenger numbers & revenues. Also worth noting, here in the WM everting including to tendered buses will need to be Euro 6 by 2020, also Rotala were offered funding to Euro 6 exhaust upgrades to the existing fleet. They have declined the funding in favour of buying new Euro 6 buses instead. As a result of all the low emission bus funding available to operators, I think you will start to see a shift where Rotala buy new buses in quantity & on 7 year operating leases. I also understand, that TfGM will also be bringing in a similar scheme to WM (i.e. all Euro 6 in the not too distant future), this will also likely affect their Atherton & Eccles Diamond NW fleets.

[Mayneway]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 23:35)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Also rule out a Transdev takeover for Bolton that's now a none starter from what I understand, the only interested party we know about is Rotala, not sure if anyone else externally is in the running, also heard HCT owners of MCT are not interested in Oldham depot.

Would have thought Oldham depot would be too large and pricey for HCT. They are busy looking for a new purpose built site to merge both depots together from what I've heard. Surprised they didn't go for cumfybus's Bolton Ops, as HCT have been keen for MCT to gain work in that area for a while. Although I suspect they would happily sit back on MCT as it is and wait for franchising.

[Mrboo]

RE: First Manchester

(28/02/2019 01:06)Mayneway Wrote:  Would have thought Oldham depot would be too large and pricey for HCT. They are busy looking for a new purpose built site to merge both depots together from what I've heard. Surprised they didn't go for cumfybus's Bolton Ops, as HCT have been keen for MCT to gain work in that area for a while. Although I suspect they would happily sit back on MCT as it is and wait for franchising.

There not really much left at Oldham if you wanted to take Oldham you only need to put buses on 409 and 180/184 and maybe 83 and for MCT that would be easy. First would not defend there routes I feel.

[motormayhem1]

RE: First Manchester
I don't think arriva are to concerned about franchising in Manchester as at the minute there a bit part player but under franchising they may gain better routes and beable to grow,that's if DB don't sell arriva off by then.
I think first was concerned that under franchising they was going to lose more than they would gain and so getting rid now would be easier to find a buyer to decrease there own debts in the process.

[Mayneway]

RE: First Manchester

(28/02/2019 05:18)Mrboo Wrote:  There not really much left at Oldham if you wanted to take Oldham you only need to put buses on 409 and 180/184 and maybe 83 and for MCT that would be easy. First would not defend there routes I feel.

Don't forget though that MCT would need to register these commercially which is not what they are about. They are still a non for profit company that ploughs any profits into the CT side of the business. There is talk of HCT splitting the company and keeping the minibus side MCT and renaming the bus side CT plus and like in London running as a seperate company and going for bigger commercial services - but I believe that's the plan should franchising come in in some form.

[johnluke]

RE: First Manchester
The other issue floating round now is the charge to drive into gm 100 quid a bus per day god knows how Andy Burnham and his people can implement this

[Brickmill]

RE: First Manchester

(28/02/2019 16:56)johnluke Wrote:  The other issue floating round now is the charge to drive into gm 100 quid a bus per day god knows how Andy Burnham and his people can implement this

I understand that this will be discussed by GMCA tomorrow. It might be a public meeting, I don't know, but it should be noted the principal and timescale is being demanded by Whitehall who have said that emission s in 8 out of 10 GM boroughs are illegal.

[buses7675 (Website Founder)]

RE: First Manchester
I think the proposal for a payment of £100 per day is only for buses that aren't Euro6 compliant.

I suspect with a potential cost of £700 per week to run a Euro5 bus into Manchester, if this gets put into place, it would be cheaper to modify the Euro4/5 buses to Euro6 standards.

I wonder where in the lines an Enviro400H stands though, as while it might have a Euro5 engine, wouldn't being a hybrid give it a better overall rating in theory?