Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

[knutstransport]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(19/09/2015 15:38)Dentonian Wrote:  Knutsford is a small town of 13,000 and wikipedia seems to back up its reputation by stating it is a "highly affluent" residential area - hardly good bus country!

There are houses in Knutsford which cost over £1m but there's probably around 50 of them in Knutsford itself (opposed to villages around the town.) If you count the number of housing association properties it'll be over 1,000. Those 50 millionaire households distort the figures vastly. If you knocked down those millionaire households, the houses left would be comparable to the houses in Northwich. Although on average the ones in Knutsford are newer builds, by being newer and closer to a big city they do on average cost a bit more.

I'd actually say Knutsford is doing very well for bus patronage.

A few years ago the 300 circular daytime services and the 27 Macclesfield bus operated with subsides, they now operate commercially.

The 88 route (former 288 route) is still a contracted service but GHA now operate a half-hourly service using mainly brand new buses with wi-fi for a lower subsidy than Arriva ran the route with pre-2009 despite the Arriva service being hourly using any old bus they could dig out.

The 289 route as you'd expect isn't that successful as it replicates the train route but serves a few villages which don't get the train.

[wirralbus]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for
These days though you might find it was a case if you don't operate those journeys commercially then there would be no money to run them as subsidised services as the councils continually look for savings in public transport budgets and the service would be lost.

Independents also have a lower profit viability figure than the bigger bus concerns like Arriva , First and Stagecoach.

[WhiteVanMan]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(20/09/2015 11:30)wirralbus Wrote:  These days though you might find it was a case if you don't operate those journeys commercially then there would be no money to run them as subsidised services as the councils continually look for savings in public transport budgets and the service would be lost.

Independents also have a lower profit viability figure than the bigger bus concerns like Arriva , First and Stagecoach.

This is very true, and is the reason why so many rural areas, such as parts of the Lake District and North Yorkshire, have no bus service at all.

The wife and myself recently spent a weekend in the lakes, and did not see one single bus all weekend.

[knutstransport]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(20/09/2015 11:30)wirralbus Wrote:  These days though you might find it was a case if you don't operate those journeys commercially then there would be no money to run them as subsidised services as the councils continually look for savings in public transport budgets and the service would be lost.

I think that's a major problem. Operators won't trial a route unless they are confident the patronage is there. Awarding a 3 month subsided contract could result in an operator seeing patronage is there and registering the service commercially. However, as it stands operators are more likely to register duplicate services commercially in an attempt to win passengers from another operator.

Quote:Independents also have a lower profit viability figure than the bigger bus concerns like Arriva , First and Stagecoach.

The 288 was hourly and operated using modern buses under small independent Starline Travel in the early to mid 90s before they were taken over by British Bus t/a North Western Road Car Co (who obviously became Arriva North West.) Most buses used at the time of takeover were M reg like this one: https://www.flickr.com/photos/rossendali...otostream/ (I know that's on the 300 route but it would have been more common to see that type of bus on the 288 route and smaller buses on the 300 route) The bus that was involved in a crash in 2007: http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42...ash203.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/07/1...68x576.jpg was typical of the type of bus running the route 12 years later.

[Bevan Price]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(19/09/2015 08:48)knutstransport Wrote:  What should be noted is Knutsford station has over 500,000 journeys made to and from it every year. There's only 4 stations in the whole country that manage that level of patronage with an hourly frequency off-peak service. With Knutsford having very few regular bus routes I think part of the reason for Knutsford's very high level of rail usage is because people travel indirectly using the train in the absence of a direct bus route.

You mention very few shoppers from Warrington wanting to go to Knutsford. However, what about people from Lymm, who may want more specialist shops than those available in Warrington? What about people wanting Tatton Park one of the most visited tourist attractions in the North West? What about people getting to and from jobs who would use a bus every day opposed to a couple of times a week like shoppers? What about people from the Knutsford area wanting to travel to Scotland/Birmingham/Liverpool etc where a bus to Warrington and a train from Warrington would be more convenient than the current available options? You mention several miles with few residential properties but what about people staying at the Cottons Hotel or Travelodge, or people wanting to get to the Garden Centre or visit someone in the Nursing Home at Bucklow Hill? What about if it's joined on to a direct Macclesfield-Knutsford? There's lot of possibilities.

1. It is simply impractical to run bus services between "everywhere" and "everywhere else" - there simply isn't the passenger demand to cater for every single journey possibility.

2. How many people make multiple visits each week / month to Tatton Park ? You cannot justify a regular bus service that only gets enough passengers when the flower show (or other event) is taking place - you need a regular, sizeable passenger flow to justify public funding.

3. The majority of people using hotels or garden centres probably go by car - again there would be insufficient numbers to justify a viable bus service.

[wirralbus]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for
At Knutsford really the railway caters for the major passenger centres likes of Chester , Northwich , Altrincham , Stockport and Manchester , the places in between probably wont generate enough .

Tatton Park , unless your a member of the NT is usually a once a year job for the visitor , good majority of the time and also come by car .

Other than at Airports , who travels with a heavy case on a bus , its unwieldy to say the least.

[knutstransport]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(22/09/2015 05:38)wirralbus Wrote:  At Knutsford really the railway caters for the major passenger centres likes of Chester , Northwich , Altrincham , Stockport and Manchester , the places in between probably wont generate enough .

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Are you saying because there is a train to Manchester there is no need for a bus to Warrington?

Quote:Tatton Park , unless your a member of the NT is usually a once a year job for the visitor , good majority of the time and also come by car .

Of course most Tatton Park visitors currently arrive by car. There's a lack of other options! A brochure produced by First TPE says if you want to go to Tatton Park it's a short taxi ride from Manchester Airport but if you want to go to Quarry Bank Bill it recommends the 200 bus from Manchester Airport.

The thing to note with Tatton Park is there's a £5 charge for entering the park by car. As the park is managed by Cheshire East council on behalf of the National Trust, National Trust members still have to pay the £5 entry fee, so a £5 day ticket for a local bus company could be an attractive alternative.

Tatton Park gets over 800,000 visitors per annum.

Quote:Other than at Airports , who travels with a heavy case on a bus , its unwieldy to say the least.

It's not still the 1970s. A considerable number of Airport passengers try to get away as cheaply as possible and try to use smallest case possible to avoid paying for checked in baggage.

[knutstransport]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(21/09/2015 22:13)Bevan Price Wrote:  1. It is simply impractical to run bus services between "everywhere" and "everywhere else" - there simply isn't the passenger demand to cater for every single journey possibility.

I'm not saying there should be a bus to everywhere but some people thought a bus to one of the largest towns in England without city status from Knutsford wouldn't be justifiable because of a lack of places inbetween which is why I mentioned other places like Lymm. Are there any intermediate towns on the 45/46 Northwich to Warrington route which are larger than Lymm?

Quote:2. How many people make multiple visits each week / month to Tatton Park ? You cannot justify a regular bus service that only gets enough passengers when the flower show (or other event) is taking place - you need a regular, sizeable passenger flow to justify public funding.

Does it matter if it's the same person every day or a different person every day? In fact a different person every day would make more money for the bus company as 6 daily tickets would cost more than a weekly ticket.

Quote:3. The majority of people using hotels or garden centres probably go by car - again there would be insufficient numbers to justify a viable bus service.

I mentioned an out-of-town Hotel (which would be on the Warrington-Knutsford bus route if it was reinstated) because I've heard comments from people staying in hotels in the Knutsford area that they don't visit the bars/pubs/restaurants in the town because they can't have a drink and drive back so without a bus local business is lost.

[Turbostar]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for
In my part of the world, we have the QBP on services 1 & 2 between Chester and Liverpool. This of course is a joint venture between Arriva, Stagecoach and Merseytravel and parts of the service aren't commercial (late evening/early morning journeys in the main I suspect).

For me, the service 2 finishes far too early on the Ellesmere Port - Chester part of the route & i've always considered this a hangover from the days when First ran the area into the ground & withdrew the evening service along what was then the service 3 route.

Although late evening services are probably never going to return, I think that this route could be run on a commercial basis until say 20:00 on weekdays and 19:00 on Saturdays (roughly an hour extra each day). Even when First ran the route, there was a token later bus on the Hope Farm section of the route?

[djb]

RE: Services which don't exist but there could be demand for

(22/09/2015 08:15)knutstransport Wrote:  I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Are you saying because there is a train to Manchester there is no need for a bus to Warrington?



Of course most Tatton Park visitors currently arrive by car. There's a lack of other options! A brochure produced by First TPE says if you want to go to Tatton Park it's a short taxi ride from Manchester Airport but if you want to go to Quarry Bank Bill it recommends the 200 bus from Manchester Airport.

The thing to note with Tatton Park is there's a £5 charge for entering the park by car. As the park is managed by Cheshire East council on behalf of the National Trust, National Trust members still have to pay the £5 entry fee, so a £5 day ticket for a local bus company could be an attractive alternative.

Tatton Park gets over 800,000 visitors per annum.


It's not still the 1970s. A considerable number of Airport passengers try to get away as cheaply as possible and try to use smallest case possible to avoid paying for checked in baggage.

I think in a nutshell that is the point? Because knutsford has so many alternative towns closer/similar in time than a bus to warrington would be, it removes multiple potential passenger flows. Because of this the route would rely on multiple unique mid route passengers, which I doubt this route has (considering you probably need 10+ per journey, assuming they're all full fare payees!