First Manchester

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Manchester

(26/02/2019 17:59)Winston Wrote:  The above statements aren't correct, I think you need to familiarise yourself with the Route One interview from Oct last year:

'Rotala now has access to £50 Million war chest, through its banking partner HSBC.....'
http://www.route-one.net/magazines/emag/...ge_32.html

All of which would need to be paid back as its a loan, it may give them assets to purchase but lets look at FirstGroup and why its in the state its in. A buy like Bolton that is potentially making losses would be a mistake, small fleets one step at a time is the right move and the one this operator has taken up to now, so far its largest acquisition having been GoAheads operations in the West Midlands and then Preston Bus, if Bolton becomes Diamond North West then you might spend £12-20m on the operation then several £million on recasting the network and renewing the fleet leaving very little money for further expansion.

They have a war chest and are looking at Arriva operations in Greater Manchester but obviously the sale of First Manchester has delayed this as it may alter the game of how much the company is worth, say if the new buyer decided to compete head on with Arriva and what they might need to do with Diamond if the new operator competes head on with them also or instead off, so its a waiting game. I also understand that it the past they have expressed interest in Jim Stones as well, and Vision Bus could be another purchase that might give growth with its routes in the Bolton area.

Also as part of a deal with Arriva some cross boundary services operated by St Helens might also be bought as routes like the 360 might better be operated from Atherton as might the longer 34's St Helens - Leigh and maybe services between Wigan and Skelmersdale.

[motormayhem1]

RE: First Manchester
Arriva would not throw in any routes from other depots and that's even if they sold there operations in Manchester off , as im led to beleive they are prepared to keep hold of it to see the results of franchising if it happens or not.
If anything arriva would take the 362/575 and possibly the 10 out of bolton and just transfer drivers to other depots.
St helens as an operators licence for 200 vehicles if memory serves me right and at the minute theres only 110-120 vehicles based there and things like the routes you mentioned are trunk routes and would not be given up with the sale of another depot as why would you want to allow another operator into one of your controlled areas by giving trunk routes up.
Doesn't make buisness sense at all.

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Manchester
Lets not forget though that Arriva is unofficially for sale in pieces, like FirstGroup is, so I am sure if Rotala offered for them they would go. There is quite a bit of dead mileage operating the 360 for example and it only touches into Merseyside at Newton-le-Willows. Rotala could pick this up at Golborne or Wigan quite easily from Atherton without the need for large distances of dead mileage.

I accept there would be a reluctance to rid stuff that enters into St Helens, but also routes like those in Skelmersdale may be better served by Rotala either from Atherton or Preston, indeed Preston already operate there.

Then there are the dead 34's that operate every morning between St Helens and Leigh when the service starts at Leigh, much easier to operate these from the Rotala base at Atherton which is merely 3 miles away rather than from St Helens which is about 12 miles, and note 34 not the 34A variation, the 34 and 34A could be renumbered if need be to satisfy Arriva.

In actual fact I was surprised that Arriva didn't buy South Lancs Travel when it was offered for sale as it would have filled nicely a gap that exists in their network between Bolton, Salford and Wigan, so they obviously weren't that keen then.

Arriva and Diamond have spoken about Wythenshawe and Bolton depots passing to Diamond but as yet nothing has happened. You couldn't move out the routes like the 575 and 10 out of Bolton as they would be too far to operate from other garages especially if Arriva pull out of Wythenshawe, you would then be talking about St Helens as the depot to do that which is some 30 or so miles away, accepted the 362 could be bolted on to the 320 or the 352 for through running, but doubt the other two could be.

Really it depends how desperate Deutsche Bahn is for the money as to what they may or may not sell. Depot by depot is much more likely but its not beyond the realms of possibly, lets not forget the 360 for a while was operated by Bolton depot, so how is it strategic to the network in St Helens?

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Manchester
Anyway back to First Manchester in general, 69538 BF63 HDU was seen yesterday and looks to have been involved in a front end accident at some stage which has led to Eclipse branding being removed from the front panel, also the overall shade of Blue doesn't match. No doubt no point in spending money getting it right when the whole lot at Bolton could be sold in days.

[mikestone]

RE: First Manchester
I'd like to see some proof Arriva are looking to dispose of operations piecemeal - as far as I am aware DB are thinking about selling off the business, or a portion of their holding. Uncertainty as to what a buyer is getting is unlikely to help in that respect.

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Manchester
Yep I've seen mixed reports, guess what they might try to do is to offload under performing business units first then assess from there. Or maybe they are just open to offers and taking it from there.

Unsure what their reasons for these rumours about sale are, whether they are blaming it like everybody else on Brexit (lets not go there) or whether its to do with under performance in Deutsche Bahn, or whether money is needed for other Germany Government Projects.

Recon a decline in FirstGroup towards extinction and Arriva now also essentially for sale, is it a route back to Nationalisation or is a new group going to appear from out of the blue with a stitch up of operations from the pair.

Will be interesting to see.

[iMarkeh]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 16:06)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Yep I've seen mixed reports, guess what they might try to do is to offload under performing business units first then assess from there. Or maybe they are just open to offers and taking it from there.

Unsure what their reasons for these rumours about sale are, whether they are blaming it like everybody else on Brexit (lets not go there) or whether its to do with under performance in Deutsche Bahn, or whether money is needed for other Germany Government Projects.

Recon a decline in FirstGroup towards extinction and Arriva now also essentially for sale, is it a route back to Nationalisation or is a new group going to appear from out of the blue with a stitch up of operations from the pair.

Will be interesting to see.

I think we all quite often think about the big companies who have only 1 brand. Ie Stagecoach, First, Arriva but we forget about those groups like Wellglade, Julian Peddles groups, Transdev, GoAhead, National Express. There are lots of bigish independants who could go for any any small depot. We are far from heading back towards Nationalisation.

[Barney]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 17:13)iMarkeh Wrote:  We are far from heading back towards Nationalisation.

That would be a political decision not a business one. The deregulation of buses in 1986 was based on the premise that private enterprise would arrest the decline in bus usage in the UK. It hasn't; it has increased it.

[Jack]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 14:43)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Arriva and Diamond have spoken about Wythenshawe and Bolton depots passing to Diamond but as yet nothing has happened. You couldn't move out the routes like the 575 and 10 out of Bolton as they would be too far to operate from other garages especially if Arriva pull out of Wythenshawe, you would then be talking about St Helens as the depot to do that which is some 30 or so miles away, accepted the 362 could be bolted on to the 320 or the 352 for through running, but doubt the other two could be.

If the 362 was bolted on with one of these then they could do the same with the 575 on the other?

[WhiteVanMan]

RE: First Manchester

(27/02/2019 15:44)mikestone Wrote:  I'd like to see some proof Arriva are looking to dispose of operations piecemeal - as far as I am aware DB are thinking about selling off the business, or a portion of their holding. Uncertainty as to what a buyer is getting is unlikely to help in that respect.

I would like to second that