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(11/07/2019 15:52)SandyDrew Wrote: [ -> ]The Arriva garage in Bolton has just had a new roof, so doubt it will be demolished anytime soon.

Arriva boltons depot/land is still owned by Rodger Jarvis the ex-bluebus owner as far as im aware of and only lease it off him.

(11/07/2019 16:11)motormayhem1 Wrote: [ -> ]Arriva boltons depot/land is still owned by Rodger Jarvis the ex-bluebus owner as far as im aware of and only lease it off him.

Yes, that's correct.

(10/07/2019 21:54)gilesbus1 Wrote: [ -> ]The problem with the bus industry and I will be frank is that it recruits fools who seem to think they can do things on the cheap, and then ships them immediately off no places hundred's of miles away they have no idea about. That is First's problem in a nutshell. Someone with a decent geographic knowledge could have saved them £m's also First refused to allow managers to take risk unlike Stagecoach again, another reason why they have failed.

Think with First the remainder will be broken up by this time next year, buyers at a guess will be:-

First Aberdeen - Aberdeen City Council
First Glasgow - Glasgow City Council and Lanarkshire Council
First Scotland East - Stirling Council
First Oldham - Closed - remains to Transdev, Rotala and MCT
First Vantage - Stripped by TfGM due to poor performance and re-let to Stagecoach Wigan
First West Yorkshire - Stagecoach
First York - Transdev
First South Yorkshire - Wellglade/Centrebus/MBO co-orp
First Potteries - Rotala
First Leicester - Centrebus
First Midland Red - Rotala
First Slough - Reading Buses
First Eastern Counties - MBO with First Eastern National as Eastern Counties National
First Eastern National - MBO with First Eastern Counties as Eastern Counties National
First Southampton, Fareham and Portsmouth depots- MBO
First Bristol - Stagecoach
First Dorset - MBO plus Property Company MBO
First Buses of Somerset - Dorset Bus as above plus Property MBO
First Cornwall - Go Ahead
First South Wales - Go Ahead

Elsewhere looks like Arriva is heading to Venture Capitalists who will then break it up and sell it in order to raise capital within 2 - 3 years

Buyers

Arriva North East - North East Property Company buses sold onwards to Stagecoach and Go Ahead in seperate sales all older depots redeveloped
Arriva North West - Merseyside opps to GoAhead, Cheshire Opps to Transdev, Manchester opps, Wythenshawe to Rotala, Bolton closed and demolished routes to Rotala and Stagecoach Wigan
Arriva Yorkshire - Go Ahead
Arriva Midlands North - Sold to Australian operator
Arriva Derby/Fox - Sold to Australian operator
Arriva The Shires - Sold to Australian operator
Arriva Colchester - Sold to Go Ahead
Arriva Southend - Sold to Go Ahead
Arriva Southern Counties (Except Guildford) - Sold to GoAhead
Arriva Guildford - Closed - routes taken on by independent operators and Stagecoach
Arriva Cymru - Sold to Lloyds, Property Company and Craig Group
Arriva London - Tower Transit/Transdev/RATP/Stagecoach/MBO depot by depot.

Seems to be a bit presumptuous that these divisions will be sold and to whom would be interested in purchase. Some of your predictions do see very far fetched, Scotland councils are allowed to create new municipal bus companies however in times of austerity purchase prices for operations such as First Glasgow is going to be too high.

Although RATP have just sold their Bournemouth Transport division to a management buyout consortium, I can’t see a explosion of management by-outs across the country. The capital costs are too high.

(11/07/2019 17:17)Nwales Bus Wrote: [ -> ]Seems to be a bit presumptuous that these divisions will be sold and to whom would be interested in purchase. Some of your predictions do see very far fetched, Scotland councils are allowed to create new municipal bus companies however in times of austerity purchase prices for operations such as First Glasgow is going to be too high.

Although RATP have just sold their Bournemouth Transport division to a management buyout consortium, I can’t see a explosion of management by-outs across the country. The capital costs are too high.

Depends on how its done, of course opps might sell to anyone, what people need to be aware with, with nay Arriva buyout is that 4 of the 5 bids are by companies classed as Venture Capitalists, what they do is they run companies for a limited time and break them up in order to raise capital, indeed I have worked for a Venture Capitalist in the past, that is how a venture capitalist company makes a profit. Without more new start companies of which some would need to be formed out of Management Buy Outs there are not enough operators to take over the assets of Arriva or FirstGroup, and they simply just won't be allowed to close unless its some sort of Municipal operation, The two large Private firms to form in recent years are of course Rotala and Centrebus plus various other firms Julian Peddle has interests in around the Midlands, what extend particularly the later could grow is unclear, and it is also thought that some European Companies are losing interest due to Brexit. RATP appearing to be an example.

Also remember that many companies in the home counties have a tendency to lose money, due to high wages, high property costs and low passenger usage basically most of the network in Surrey has been decimated over the past 25 years with all but Guildford London Country garage being sold off for property redevelopment, and most of the school routes being in the hands of coaches, but that's market forces due to price and demand. Hertfordshire similarly saw similar to Surrey in terms of several garage closures but the operators did remain on more economical smaller sites. So in terms of those area's it would be interesting to see.

Modernising garages doesn't save them I can think of several new London transport depots that were closed within a few years of modernisation, simply because they were in the wrong place or with the wrong operator for contract work, take Streatham and Norbiton for example. They may be tendered but in the deregulated market did modernisation or new garages save Bury or Rotherham, Altrincham or Tameside? So repairing a roof will make no difference 3 years down the line but be quite blunt.

Of course there will always be buyers for profitable city area's like West Yorkshire, Merseyside, Bristol and Glasgow but what happens when the City area loses money hand over thist, remains to be seen.

There might also in large Cities be environmental considerations as well as large City Regions have there own mayors with responsibilities to clear the atmosphere in their own regions, that may add other complications, Glasgow, Manchester, Birmingham and Bristol already have plans, and Liverpool is to follow and also probably Leeds, Edinburgh, Tyne & Wear and Sheffield, and of course London has already implemented its scheme. This may mean large bills for new fleets of buses which may cause again the boom and bust in the bus manufacture-ring industry. Cheaper oversea's bus builders from China and Turkey may need to be used in order to meet demand, recent orders from Yutong seem to suggest this will be an increasing trend and a way of getting new buses cost effectively and quickly.

So the industry will change and operators will change over the next few years, and recent take-overs and sales will not be the last.

The problem with the early deregulation operators and groups is they bled their business' dry and now they have nothing to show shareholders but lots of expenses forecoming through change in policies and change in market place, within 10 years the bus industry will be very different and FirstGroup and Arriva will have left the UK Bus market to be replaced by new smaller entrants, possibly as side wings to Venture Capital Organisations who will maintain ownership for only a few years then sell on, but that is that.

(10/07/2019 22:09)gilesbus1 Wrote: [ -> ]My own thought is that First will be stripped of the contract, as folk who work in Manchester will simply start bothering Andy Burnham, lets not forget some of those who work in Manchester have good jobs and are powerful people. I am sure Andy Burnham has already warned First about working out of Rusholme, its just a shame Rotala didn't see sense to pass Atherton on to First Vantage and pull out of it on 12th August instead of end of August.

I am very surprised that a swap of depots, isn't happening.

(11/07/2019 19:36)gilesbus1 Wrote: [ -> ]Depends on how its done, of course opps might sell to anyone, what people need to be aware with, with nay Arriva buyout is that 4 of the 5 bids are by companies classed as Venture Capitalists, what they do is they run companies for a limited time and break them up in order to raise capital, indeed I have worked for a Venture Capitalist in the past, that is how a venture capitalist company makes a profit. Without more new start companies of which some would need to be formed out of Management Buy Outs there are not enough operators to take over the assets of Arriva or FirstGroup, and they simply just won't be allowed to close unless its some sort of Municipal operation, The two large Private firms to form in recent years are of course Rotala and Centrebus plus various other firms Julian Peddle has interests in around the Midlands, what extend particularly the later could grow is unclear, and it is also thought that some European Companies are losing interest due to Brexit. RATP appearing to be an example.

Also remember that many companies in the home counties have a tendency to lose money, due to high wages, high property costs and low passenger usage basically most of the network in Surrey has been decimated over the past 25 years with all but Guildford London Country garage being sold off for property redevelopment, and most of the school routes being in the hands of coaches, but that's market forces due to price and demand. Hertfordshire similarly saw similar to Surrey in terms of several garage closures but the operators did remain on more economical smaller sites. So in terms of those area's it would be interesting to see.

Modernising garages doesn't save them I can think of several new London transport depots that were closed within a few years of modernisation, simply because they were in the wrong place or with the wrong operator for contract work, take Streatham and Norbiton for example. They may be tendered but in the deregulated market did modernisation or new garages save Bury or Rotherham, Altrincham or Tameside? So repairing a roof will make no difference 3 years down the line but be quite blunt.

Of course there will always be buyers for profitable city area's like West Yorkshire, Merseyside, Bristol and Glasgow but what happens when the City area loses money hand over thist, remains to be seen.

There might also in large Cities be environmental considerations as well as large City Regions have there own mayors with responsibilities to clear the atmosphere in their own regions, that may add other complications, Glasgow, Manchester, Birmingham and Bristol already have plans, and Liverpool is to follow and also probably Leeds, Edinburgh, Tyne & Wear and Sheffield, and of course London has already implemented its scheme. This may mean large bills for new fleets of buses which may cause again the boom and bust in the bus manufacture-ring industry. Cheaper oversea's bus builders from China and Turkey may need to be used in order to meet demand, recent orders from Yutong seem to suggest this will be an increasing trend and a way of getting new buses cost effectively and quickly.

So the industry will change and operators will change over the next few years, and recent take-overs and sales will not be the last.

The problem with the early deregulation operators and groups is they bled their business' dry and now they have nothing to show shareholders but lots of expenses forecoming through change in policies and change in market place, within 10 years the bus industry will be very different and FirstGroup and Arriva will have left the UK Bus market to be replaced by new smaller entrants, possibly as side wings to Venture Capital Organisations who will maintain ownership for only a few years then sell on, but that is that.

RAPT sold Yellow Buses as it's loss making & locked in intense competition with Go South Coast 'More' services.

Centrebus haven't expanded for years.

You've not included NX Group on your list, they are in the unique position and overlap with very little of First UK Bus or Arriva UK, only slighyly in the Midlands.

Then theirs Souter Investments which has a nice big lump of cash following the sale of ADL & Polski Bus.

I think the above are more likely over some unnamed 'Australian Bus Operator'

(10/07/2019 21:54)gilesbus1 Wrote: [ -> ]The problem with the bus industry and I will be frank is that it recruits fools who seem to think they can do things on the cheap, and then ships them immediately off no places hundred's of miles away they have no idea about. That is First's problem in a nutshell. Someone with a decent geographic knowledge could have saved them £m's also First refused to allow managers to take risk unlike Stagecoach again, another reason why they have failed.

Think with First the remainder will be broken up by this time next year, buyers at a guess will be:-

First Aberdeen - Aberdeen City Council
First Glasgow - Glasgow City Council and Lanarkshire Council
First Scotland East - Stirling Council
First Oldham - Closed - remains to Transdev, Rotala and MCT
First Vantage - Stripped by TfGM due to poor performance and re-let to Stagecoach Wigan
First West Yorkshire - Stagecoach
First York - Transdev
First South Yorkshire - Wellglade/Centrebus/MBO co-orp
First Potteries - Rotala
First Leicester - Centrebus
First Midland Red - Rotala
First Slough - Reading Buses
First Eastern Counties - MBO with First Eastern National as Eastern Counties National
First Eastern National - MBO with First Eastern Counties as Eastern Counties National
First Southampton, Fareham and Portsmouth depots- MBO
First Bristol - Stagecoach
First Dorset - MBO plus Property Company MBO
First Buses of Somerset - Dorset Bus as above plus Property MBO
First Cornwall - Go Ahead
First South Wales - Go Ahead

Elsewhere looks like Arriva is heading to Venture Capitalists who will then break it up and sell it in order to raise capital within 2 - 3 years

Buyers

Arriva North East - North East Property Company buses sold onwards to Stagecoach and Go Ahead in seperate sales all older depots redeveloped
Arriva North West - Merseyside opps to GoAhead, Cheshire Opps to Transdev, Manchester opps, Wythenshawe to Rotala, Bolton closed and demolished routes to Rotala and Stagecoach Wigan
Arriva Yorkshire - Go Ahead
Arriva Midlands North - Sold to Australian operator
Arriva Derby/Fox - Sold to Australian operator
Arriva The Shires - Sold to Australian operator
Arriva Colchester - Sold to Go Ahead
Arriva Southend - Sold to Go Ahead
Arriva Southern Counties (Except Guildford) - Sold to GoAhead
Arriva Guildford - Closed - routes taken on by independent operators and Stagecoach
Arriva Cymru - Sold to Lloyds, Property Company and Craig Group
Arriva London - Tower Transit/Transdev/RATP/Stagecoach/MBO depot by depot.

Dreamworld, I fear. Maybe the forum should have a "speculation" section ?

(11/07/2019 21:03)WhiteVanMan Wrote: [ -> ]I am very surprised that a swap of depots, isn't happening.

I am as well as it makes perfect operational sense, it makes me wonder if FirstGroup didn't buy Rusholme off Lease at some stage and now need a use for it, hence this situation, why they bought it is beyond me, perhaps of course it was going cheap, when they are a North Manchester Operator with very little in South Manchester in fact the tail end of two Vantage routes is all they have, the extra fuel costs and wage costs alone will up costs as will training costs of all the new staff they will need to take on when the Vantage staff who generally live in Bolton and Leigh leave as its too far away as a working base, plus Rusholme is in an ideal site for redevelopment, where Atherton is on an industrial estate so can't be redeveloped. If it passes back to the leasing company they will never get it again as units on there tend to be 100% occupied unusually, the unit is or was owned by S&W Garages the one time haulage maintenance company, that repainted some buses for First Manchester about 25 years ago in Tomato Soup Livery, although that premises was previously to SLT used as a car maintenance yard by the S&W Group. The proprietor of S & W was the second partner besides Martin Bott in South Lancs Travel/Green Triangle Buses.

Another thing that puzzles me is based on the fact that its a TfGM contract why they didn't enclose a depot as part of the busway scheme close to the busway, say in somewhere like Tyldesley close to the track that the operator had to utilise on winning the franchise, and that was only for the use of Vantage Buses.

(11/07/2019 21:05)Winston Wrote: [ -> ]RAPT sold Yellow Buses as it's loss making & locked in intense competition with Go South Coast 'More' services.

Centrebus haven't expanded for years.

You've not included NX Group on your list, they are in the unique position and overlap with very little of First UK Bus or Arriva UK, only slighyly in the Midlands.

Then theirs Souter Investments which has a nice big lump of cash following the sale of ADL & Polski Bus.

I think the above are more likely over some unnamed 'Australian Bus Operator'

Would Souter Investments be able to though when he holds Stagecoach shares? Would that simply not be blocked and/or investigated by the MMC? Office of Fair Trading? and either him being forced to release his Stagecoach shares or place himself in a none executive position on Stagecoach's board with shares being locked, until an age when he is no longer part of either company operationally. E.g. a Souter Size pension fund. I've also heard that Souter wants the routes but not the business to avoid any MMC investigation, that situation would be very unlikely, especially as Venture Capitalists would likely become involved, and so far of the five bids for Arriva none have been made by any Brian Souter company, although he still has time to mount a bid for the moment! unless of course he is more interested now in what is a FirstGroup based on the fact that is more likely to be broken now and he can hedge his bets on Arriva being bought by one of the Venture Capitalists and broken up later on. Of course nothing is to say that Stagecoach might break off companies in the future should it get into financial difficulty at a latter stage, or doesn't like what some Andy Burnham type character is doing i elsewhere, or Andy Burnham him himself is doing in Manchester, e.g. after a final legal push in Manchester and the toys are thrown out of the basket if it loses money elsewhere in one of its fleets, e.g. another East Lancashire.

I am lead to believe National Express is not really interested in much beyond the West Midlands, otherwise why has it not yet raised its hand in the 25 years or so its held West Midlands except in Dundee? Perhaps National Express is a vehicle to continue and inject capital into what was Travel West Midlands and also the MBO at Tayside. I've also wondered over the years why National Express didn't join up as a merger with GoAhead, as nothing duplicates between them, despite GoAhead getting its toes burn't in Birmingham previously, National Express is a different picture to Birmingham Coach Company and Peoples Express.

(11/07/2019 21:24)Bevan Price Wrote: [ -> ]Dreamworld, I fear. Maybe the forum should have a "speculation" section ?

I totally agree with your analogy with First but totally disagree with your forecasts about Arriva.

I've been informed by good sources the whole kiboodle of Arriva, being buses, trains and continental operations are being sold en bloc. There are 4 bids in (1 of which is by venture capitalists who want to cherry pick so are getting binned). There will be an announcement at the end of September declaring preferred bidders followed by the successful bidder being made public in October. The 3 main concerns are continental. Just not saying which continent